Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 211.892764 254.796987 306.988784 376.083673 466.578937 583.134190 7.481025e+02
2025-08-24 155.991485 203.745031 268.696168 366.395338 515.068939 742.771044 1.139977e+03
2025-08-31 124.977951 172.349379 241.804653 356.125110 550.653866 892.523263 1.606802e+03
2025-09-07 113.529251 164.453555 244.473639 388.055935 661.352701 1217.300842 2.647706e+03
2025-09-14 100.113736 150.274794 233.215054 392.121251 722.637552 1482.414514 3.844083e+03
2025-09-21 91.133321 141.255877 228.081555 404.991377 806.105333 1850.946503 5.857527e+03
2025-09-28 81.894488 130.121298 216.757330 402.187238 853.658405 2164.050404 8.287216e+03
2025-10-05 78.757433 129.006296 223.448658 438.652085 1014.082765 2954.387832 1.523479e+04
2025-10-12 75.159975 126.409010 226.630634 468.248838 1173.377618 3932.014387 2.853550e+04
2025-10-19 71.241128 122.576098 226.495804 489.928734 1323.240541 5092.938790 5.465281e+04
2025-10-26 67.132965 117.776762 223.400608 503.249289 1455.673624 6409.589957 1.074208e+05
2025-11-02 62.824001 112.008066 217.174507 506.469532 1555.995928 7764.289418 2.129261e+05
2025-11-09 57.874241 104.559453 206.461876 495.753556 1604.536811 8971.164043 4.211556e+05
2025-11-16 53.335176 97.485555 195.624112 482.187395 1636.976790 10209.074524 9.003822e+05
2025-11-23 49.294614 91.028355 185.302588 467.616048 1658.586305 11485.459551 2.168209e+06
2025-11-30 48.721180 91.963547 193.099513 513.182472 2010.609382 17979.008702 1.077218e+08
2025-12-07 46.280384 88.488878 189.260264 519.013686 2164.552730 23054.203188 NaN
2025-12-14 44.585812 86.505285 188.971018 537.514609 2416.215009 32284.204324 NaN
2025-12-21 42.161656 82.595067 182.984380 533.478151 2525.940237 39982.040156 NaN
2025-12-28 41.925213 83.756374 190.987254 586.203777 3105.174584 73840.030185 NaN
2026-01-04 41.257944 83.812317 195.939499 629.363292 3698.017245 136293.157042 NaN
2026-01-11 40.235635 82.888878 197.920027 661.177766 4264.794969 249402.819953 NaN
2026-01-18 38.934237 81.136836 197.163078 680.806825 4764.170454 447143.930086 NaN